The UK was one of the worst hit countries in the world when the pandemic started. The first wave resulted in a great economic downfall, and coupled with the rising death toll and mismanagement of the situation, things were looking grave.
Boris Johnson was under tremendous pressure to perform, and he did not live up to expectations as the second wave hit the country, with more than 20,000 positive cases (The Guardian) being recorded in a day. Needless to say, things had started to look extremely bleak.
It wasn’t all bad news though. The UK government had prepared for another hit to the economy and were expecting the worst. But as people adapted to the new normal and grew accustomed to the repeated lockdowns, the UK economy began to recover towards the beginning of 2021. The annual GDP was expected to drop by 4.2%, but it rose by 2.1% (The Guardian) instead. The economic backlash was slowly fading, with the GDP drop being only 5.9% lesser than it was in February 2020, before the pandemic caused the country to shut down.
Now, let’s get back to the present. July 19 was recorded as Freedom Day in the UK with most of the restrictions being lifted, allowing the people in the country to experience normalcy again. There is a shadow creeping up to this newfound freedom and it goes by the name of Delta Variant of COVID-19. What is the Delta variant? What does the third wave mean for the UK and can the UK economy handle it?
Read on to find out.
What is the Third Wave?
Right before the UK was set to relax restrictions and open up the economy, there was a peak number of recorded cases in the country, all because of the Delta variant of the coronavirus. As of July 16, there was a total of 17% increase in the number of cases in just a week, which is nothing compared to the 42% rise in the number of cases recorded the week before. The country had recorded the highest number of positive patients anywhere in the world in a day crossing 50,000, out of which the Delta variant contributed to 99% (GOV.UK) of them.
The only good thing about this news is that people have started to take the strains seriously and started to isolate in fear of another lockdown. Another added benefit is the vaccination drives and programmes being implemented across the country to combat this pandemic. There has been a noticeable gap between the number of recorded cases and the number of hospitalizations and deaths.
How is the UK Tackling the Delta Variant?
The vaccination programmes across the country are in full force to prevent the country from going into yet another lockdown. The second method for dealing with the third wave is through the contact tracing application. Developed by the National Health Service, it aims at notifying people if and when they come in contact with someone who has tested positive for COVID-19. This notification has resulted in over a million people going into isolation to prevent the spread of the disease. It is an effective means of tackling the issue, but the only way it can work is if the UK citizens adhere to the isolation rules and stay put for the duration.
Contact tracing is done in two ways. The most popular way is through the COVID-19 application that tracks movement and notifies whoever came in contact with the patient once they agree to have been infected with the virus. The second method is far more traditional. Workers are sent to the positive patients and they are asked to give a list of people who the patients have come in contact with before they tested positive. Those people are in turn notified and asked to isolate.
Read Also: “CPI to 0.3%.” How the UK’s Economy Dealt With #COVID19’s Punches
The Disadvantages that Come With the Third Wave
The contact tracking application in use across the UK does have its benefits and advantages in terms of breaking the chain of infections, but it also comes with its own set of disadvantages. Users have reported a series of complications and issues with the application, the majority of it being that the application is too sensitive.
The application works on a proximity basis, which means that it detects anyone who is close by, even though they might be physically separated. Many people have reported getting notified for having contact with their neighbours, even though they are separated by walls. Users of the application are also asked to isolate themselves even though they have been fully vaccinated. Another disadvantage of using an application based tracking system is that they can just delete the application or put their location tracking services off so that they do not have to risk isolation.
Can the UK Economy Survive the Third Wave of COVID-19?
Businesses all across the country are being disrupted. While the ecommerce trend may be on the rise, many small and medium sized enterprises are facing the brunt of the repeated lockdowns because of the pandemic. People are apprehensive about their existing work situation and do not feel secure in their current jobs. Countless pubs and restaurants have shut down over the past year because they could not bear the overhead costs that came with running the place.
The country relied heavily on tourism for providing hundreds of thousands of jobs and since inbound tourism has been banned in the UK, that entire industry, and industries related to it have suffered. The UK government has done what it can so far to provide relief to affected and displaced workers, but it does not mean respite from their problems.
The third wave of COVID-19 needs to be dealt with extreme caution and people need to be vigilant because the economic backlash on small and medium sized businesses is already too big a concern. 33 outlets (BBC) of a large UK pub chain, Greene King, have been shut in the last week due to all its workers self-isolating.
There is also a lot of confusion regarding the new rules and relaxations and how they go with the pandemic isolation protocol. The UK government has offered little to no clarification in the situation, so businesses are moving forward with no clear guidelines on how to operate. This is risky in itself especially with the fast-spreading Delta variant of COVID-19. Businesses especially in the hospitality industry are trying to lobby for certain amendments and changes in the contact tracking application to update their protocols, especially for those patrons who have been vaccinated. They are also trying to push for newer testing regulations and updated rules for isolation.
Many agencies that offer market research services can use their business intelligence tools to determine the impact of the third wave on the UK economy. These insights will be based on the trajectory of rise in infected patients, the hospitalization count, and the number of deaths, along with taking external factors such as relaxations on restrictions. A regular, detailed and informative report is needed in order to understand the existing state of the country’s economy and how different industries can work towards getting back on their horses.
What Can You Do?
Well, there is no correct answer to this question. Everything is still underway, and all we can do is sit and watch what happens over the next couple of weeks with the relaxations. Everyone can certainly hope for the best and believe in the effectiveness of the vaccines. The best thing to do would be to stay careful, isolate if someone has been in contact with a COVID-19 positive patient and get vaccinated as soon as possible in order to eliminate most risk.
It is certainly an uncertain time for the people of the UK and all around the world, and if the third wave looks anything like the previous two, the country is in for another total lockdown. While there is nothing more important than being safe and protecting oneself from the virus, the economic backlash of these repeated lockdowns will surely be felt for years after.
People are advised to practice self-isolation even though it may not be necessary as a precautionary measure. Even though there is no obligation to follow the protocols or guidelines, or even download the contact tracking application, it is still always better to be safe instead of being sorry. Cautiously reopening the country will guarantee that it stays open, and the only way to do so is to ensure the people are following the safety protocols put in place.
