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Apr 11, 2022

The latest Assessment Report (AR6) by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) makes it clear that it is “now or never” for the planet. The report warns that the global emissions are going to peak by 2025 unless there is a decline of 50% on a global scale to limit global warming to 1.5 °C by 2100. Based on the current trends, the global temperature is estimated to increase by 3 °C. To prevent climate devastation, drastic steps will have to be taken to reduce emissions. To limit global warming to 1.5 °C, GHG emissions will have to be reduced by 43% by 2030, and methane emissions will have to be reduced by 34% by 2030. To limit global warming to 2 °C, GHG emissions will have to be reduced by 27% by 2030.

On the other hand, the report also states the positive impacts of some mitigation efforts. Renewables have taken the center stage in mitigating climate change risks. Solar and wind energy usage has significantly increased globally, having a cleansing effect on climate. Few countries have achieved a steady decrease in emissions consistent with the goal to limit global warming to 2 °C. Zero emissions targets have been adopted by at least 826 cities and 103 regions around the world.

The way forward for the entire world to reduce negative climate impacts is to curb the usage of fossil fuels. Climate models have suggested that emissions from existing and planned fossil fuel projects have already exceeded tolerable carbon emissions. The efforts put in by nations to meet committed goals and targets should not be limited only to curbing emissions but should also focus on expanding green covers such as forests and improved agricultural practices. Also, under-developed nations will require financial aid to make the transition from a fossil fuel-based economy to a greener and more sustainable economy.

Apr 08, 2022

Money has a critical role to play in our lives. It’s a common notion that money can’t buy happiness, but not having it (or enough of it) can cause many sleepless nights. A reliable and comfortable income certainly makes life easier. It is negatively correlated with emotions like stress and is rather correlated with higher self-esteem, security, and dignity. So, yes, money can indeed buy happiness. The question is, how much money is enough? In 2010, a study published by Nobel laureates Daniel Kahneman and Angus Deaton stated that the quality of one's life increases as one earns more. However, the feeling flattens around USD 75,000 (annual income). Although, eleven years later, in 2021, a study published by Matthew Killingsworth of the University of Pennsylvania found that well-being rises with income—even beyond USD 75,000.

So, how much is enough? The truth is, money itself falls short. It is not the end-all-be-all for happiness. Killingsworth's study also found that people who equated money with success reported being less happy than those who didn't. That's because high income comes with tradeoffs. High earners report a heightened sense of achievement, but they are also more stressed. And lonely. Instead, here's the secret to happiness: money, yes, but also the right mix of good social relationships, exercise, and a sense of purpose. In fact, people who have a job they love and which gives them a sense of purpose report greater happiness—regardless of the money they earn.

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Dec 17, 2021

The world is racing against time to achieve the ambitious goal of attaining carbon neutrality by 2050. While solar and wind power have emerged as solid pillars in the transition away from fossil fuels, they are far from perfect. The world is increasingly looking for more efficient and sustainable options. So, what could be the solution? The answer is Green Hydrogen, which can emerge as a quick enabler toward a greener world.

Hydrogen gas (aka Grey Hydrogen) is widely used in various industrial applications. It is primarily produced using steam methane reforming, which uses natural gas and releases carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide. That is anything but eco-friendly. On the other hand, Green Hydrogen is produced using a simple, eco-friendly electrolysis process that leaves behind oxygen as its only by-product. It enables decarbonization and can significantly reduce our dependency on fossil fuels.

It is estimated that the production process would offset c.20% of the CO2 emitted per annum in producing Grey Hydrogen. It gets better. Green Hydrogen can be used in transportation, electricity generation, heat generation, infrastructure, energy storage, and much more. Accordingly, the demand for Green Hydrogen is expected to reach 500mn tons by 2050, making up for ~20% of the global energy demand.

However, the biggest impediment in its widespread adoption is its cost (USD 3-7 per kg, vs c.USD2.0 per kg for Grey Hydrogen). But like any other innovative technology, as it scales, it will become more affordable (estimated cost USD 1.4-2.4 per kg by 2030) provided we make a collective effort and ensure financial commitments from key stakeholders.

Dec 10, 2021

Chinese property developer Kaisa Group Holdings has become another victim of China’s deleveraging campaign under the “three red lines” rule. Yes, it, too, has failed to service its bond.

The much-criticized policy has shaken the foundation of the Chinese real estate sector, which, along with related industries, contributes c.30% to China’s GDP. After 20 years of rapid growth, the Chinese real estate sector is worth more than $50tn, or ~2x the US property market. In a previous SGA Beat, Will the New Chinese Real Estate Policy Backfire?, we highlighted the policy's possible implications on China’s real estate sector. Subsequently, we covered Evergrande's crisis in a much-shared blog. https://us.sganalytics.com/blog/chinas-perfect-storm-will-evergrande-swim-or-sink

China's Evergrande averted technical default by paying the interest at the fag-end of the grace period till last month. However, the tightening of the financial condition following the Evergrande crisis has led to several developers such as China Fortune Land Development (CFLD), Sunshine 100, Sichuan Languang, Sinic Holdings, and Fantasia Holdings Group, etc., failing to service debt, and leading to a default scenario. Now the likes of Kaisa, having a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of more than 1.5x, have come under pressure. Falling property prices and sales amid a sector rout have deteriorated liquidity and pushed the cash-to-short-term debt ratio lower. As more developers come under stress, the government looks prepared to support the sector rather than allowing more players to default. That said, a few companies still look vulnerable.

Nov 26, 2021

"The Great Resignation" has caught the imagination of many, and indeed for a reason. In September, a record 3% of the US workforce voluntarily left their jobs, taking the cumulative figure to over 20 million this year. Other regions are not far behind, with nearly 14 million quitting from the OECD region.

So, what’s driving the exodus? People are re-evaluating what they want to do with their lives and what work means to them. Some are resigning lest they catch the virus, while some have made a killing from the stock market and crypto boom. But the vast majority, largely mid-level employees in their mid-30s and early 40s, are quitting due to burnout, low pay, or they're just looking to explore other opportunities. Hospitality & Leisure and the Education industries are worst hit. Still, the Professional and Business services are also not far behind.

The ongoing saga may paint a gloomy picture, but it is indeed not. The hiring in September was at 6.5 million, which is over 2 million more than the quit rate indicating the job market looks strong in the US. Yet, employers have a lot at stake, with some estimates suggesting the cost of replacing employees is ~1.2x more than that of finding and training new ones. Companies need to adapt quickly and offer solutions that make employees feel valued and cared for to avoid situations going out of hand.

While it can be debated whether the ongoing trend is transient or permanent, one thing is sure: the pandemic has changed the way we think. As they say, our experiences shape our choices, and the pandemic has changed how we look at our lives